The go-to guy in my crew for all things football.  Smells dominates every fantasy league he is in.  Here he gives us his update on the state of the NFL with a division by division breakdown.  (Real Life = On the Field – Make Believe = Fantasy Football)  Take a look.

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This is the year for the Baltimore Ravens.  Eveything has fallen into place for them to get a top two seed in the AFC.  Their schedule is very favorable.  They are 4-1 and they have six pretty much guaranteed wins left on their schedule (@JAX, ARI, @SEA, CIN, IND, CLE).  That doesn’t even count @CLE, @CIN, SF (three more games they will be favored in by at least three points).  Welcome to 13-3.  Plus Ray Lewis’ steroids seem to be working great on Ed Reed this year.  

Baltimore Ravens: 4-1

Real Life:  Heard some stupid announcer say that Haloti Ngata may be the best defensive player in the league right now.  Good lord is that a reach.  Their schedule is easy as shit.  Playoff Odds 100% AFC North Champs 90%

Make Believe:  Their schedule is so fucking easy.  It makes me start to like Joe Flacco at QB from here on out.  If you need a QB and you don’t want to give up the farm for a stud, I would suggest making a play for him.  Good upside value here.  Ray Rice is as stud, do not trade him.  He will be the #1 RB in all of football at the end of the year.  

Cincinnati Bengals: 4-2

Real Life:  The Cincinnati Bengals have been a nice story so far this year.  You’ve really got to be impressed with AJ Green and Andy Dalton.  Their defense is solid too (youngest in the league).  Only reason I know this shit is because I am friends with a part-time Bengals fan who yaps about them constantly.  Probably the most boring team to watch in the NFL.  Schedule not favorable moving forward.  Playoff Odds 40%

Make Believe: Nothing here really.  Only guy I am interested in at all is Green and whoever has him paid very little for him.  You aren’t gonna want to give what they are asking for him.  Cedric Benson just got his suspension dropped to one game, so buy low is gone for him.

Pittsburgh Steelers:  4-2

Real Life:  The Pittsburgh Steelers need to keep Big Ben Roethlisberger healthy but I would argue that Rashard Mendenhall’s health is the key to this offense.  He takes a ton of pressure off Roethlisberger and he is a load.  Their defensive and offensive lines look like they are in trouble (few key injuries).  Gonna need to stay healthy at skill positions on offense to have any chance. Playoff Odds: 40%

Make Believe:  I love Mendenhall and would definitely target him if you need help at RB.  Should be cheaper than a top guy for similar production from here on out.  I still think Mike Wallace is overrated.   That is assuming he is rated as elite.  There are just too many scoring options in Pittsburgh for him to be an elite WR.  

Cleveland Browns: 2-3

Real Life:  The Cleveland Browns are a team in disarray right now.  Peyton Hillis is proving the Madden Curse is real. They will be underdogs or slight favorites in their remaining games.   Don’t see any Cleveland easy or blowout victories left on their schedule.  Playoff odds 0%

Make Believe:  Colt McCoy looks like he has control of this offense.  He’s a good bye week fill in.  Also think Mohamed Massaquoi could be decent.  He is developing a nice repoire with McCoy.  Montario Hardesty is the pick up here for fantasy, if you have room on your roster.  I could see some owners getting fed up with Hillis and he could hit some waiver wires soon.  If he does, I would  try to scoop him.  

Look out for my AFC West breakdown this weekend, when I’ll give you my take on the Carson Palmer trade.

Good Luck and Learn,

Smells

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