The go-to guy in my crew for all things football.  Smells dominates every fantasy league he is in.  Here he gives us his update on the state of the NFL with a division by division breakdown.  (Real Life = On the Field – Make Believe = Fantasy Football)  Take a look.

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This division is one of the top divisions in the league.  With the Green Bay Packers looking absolutely unbeatable and the Detroit Lions having a dream-like season.  This division has two essential playoff locks.  Unless Matthew Stafford’s shoulder remembers that it is made of Jello, they will be in the playoffs.  The Chicago Bears are going to be in a seven team race for two playoff spots.  This was not a good year for the Bears to be mediocre.   I should rephrase that, bad year for the Bears to be normal.

Green Bay Packers: 7-0

Real Life:  What else is there to say about this team?  They seem to be the best team in the league right now.  Their offense dismantles any defense they play.  My problem is, how is this team different from last year?  Last year this team barely made the playoffs.  Now they are the best team of all time?  I remember another team that was the best of all time, the 2007 New England Patriots.  How did that Super Bowl end? Playoff Odds: 100%

Make Believe:  Aaron Rogers is fun to watch and he makes this offense click.  He is constantly throwing perfect passes to his Wide Receiver’s.  Greg Jennings is a great Wide Receiver but he will never be seen as an elite player.  James Starks could be a nice target for a buy low candidate.  He has been very disappointing this year and could probably be had on the cheap.  Jermichael Finley has been a bust this year but I don’t think that fantasy owners will be willing to part with him.  They paid a decently high price for him in the draft and will receive nowhere near that value in any trade offer.  His ceiling is sky-high.

Detroit Lions:  6-2

Real Life:  Who would have thought that drafting players that are not total jag offs and that don’t play the same position will help your team build a roster?  Three straight years this team drafted Wide Receiver’s who were total jags (Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, Mike Williams).   They finally hit the jackpot with Calvin Johnson, then they went on a roll with Stafford, Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley.  Now they are enjoying their best season in years.  They sucked for so long and had so many high draft choices that it was mathematically impossible for them to fuck up their draft every year.  Even a blind squirrel….  Playoff Odds: 65%

Make Believe:  Johnson is the best Wide Receiver on the planet, pretty much everyone is aware of this.  Don’t waste your time trying to trade for him.  His owner’s will be asking for the moon and more.  I am still waiting for either Nate Burleson or Titus Young to have some decent games.  You would think these guys could get open when teams are double and triple teaming Megatron (Johnson).  Stafford is the big wild card here, he has had some big should injuries over the last couple years and those things linger.  Especially when gigantic defensive lineman are landing on it and trying to re-injure it.

Chicago Bears:  4-3

Real Life:  The Bears are in a tough spot this year.  They play a tough schedule and the Lions are awesome.  They are gonna be fighting over one playoff spot with six other teams, assuming the Lions make the playoffs.  That means they are going to have to win at least five more games to get into that playoff discussion.  I only see two wins for sure and another three other games where they will be favorites.  I am a firm believer that you win games in the trenches and the Bears offensive line is a fucking joke.  The O-line issues will seal this teams fate in the end.  Playoff Odds: 15%

Make Believe:  I love how Matt Forte was a top 5 pick last year and this year he was a mid second rounder or early third rounder.  Every year I see a previous year’s top five pick plummet in the next years draft  because they had an off-year.  Forte was dinged up all last year and their offensive line is terrible.  Lets not forget that he is playing for a contract this year.  Weird.  The Bears’ Wide Receiver’s are also terrible.  Jay Cutler will never develop into the Quarterback he is capable of unless the Bears address the Wide Receiver issues.  Avoid all Bears except Forte.

Minnesota Vikings: 2-6

Real Life:  This is maybe the best 2-6 team of all time. They have had leads in every game they have played this year and all their losses have come to teams with winning records.  I hope they continue to lose so they will get an easy schedule next year and I can unload on their season wins over.  The Vikings were an errant Brett Favre pick away from the Super Bowl one year ago!  They should sit Adrian Peterson the rest of the year.  Why not?  Why would you want to waste him when your team is out of the playoffs.  Running backs do not age well in the NFL. Playoff Odds: 0%

Make Believe:  Outside of Peterson the only player to even take a look at is Visanthe Shiancoe.  With Christian Ponder at the helm, Shiancoe will be getting plenty of looks from his young Quarterback.  Rookie Quarterback’s love their Tight Ends.   Ponder will be no different.  I know this is a huge shocker.  Ponder, Florida State, Tight End, shocker.  You do the math.

Keep Learning,

Smells

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